Christopher Rugaber, Josh Boak and Bani Sapra AP Business Writers Published 9:48 PM EDT Aug 15, 2019 Washington — How fragile is the global economy? The U.S.-China trade war is weakening businesses in both countries, Germany’s economy shrank in the second quarter, and Britain appears headed for a disruptive exit from the European Union this fall. Those trends have hammered American manufacturers and caused global financial markets to plunge on fears that the world’s largest economy could slip into a recession. Yet most analysts expect the U.S. economy to power through the rough patch, at least in the coming months, on the strength of solid consumer spending and a resilient job market. The U.S. stock market plummeted earlier this week when the bond market, spooked by the global turmoil, sent a possible early warning sign of a recession ahead: The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note slipped briefly below 2-year Treasury yields. That is an unusual shift that indicates investors expect the U.S. economy to expand much more slowly in the coming months. The shift has preceded at least the last five U.S. recessions, though as much as two years can pass before a recession actually hits. Still, most… Read full this story
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